The Guardian: õhus on märgid Venemaa majanduse kokkuvarisemisest
Community Arguments
- Russia's economy weakest since war started.3
- Signs of systemic crisis evident.2
- IMF forecasts low GDP growth rates.2
- Uncertainty about the full impact.1
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Mnjaa, mis ma oskan öelda
Oil and gas revenues: Dropped from ~40% of federal budget in 2022 to ~25% in 2025's first three quarters, driven by Ural crude prices falling from $90/barrel in early 2022 to $50 by end-2025. Sanctions and reduced purchases from India/China exacerbate this, with 2025 fossil fuel earnings 13% below pre-war levels.
GDP growth forecasts: IMF estimates downgraded to 0.6% for 2025 and 0.8% for 2026, the lowest non-pandemic rates since the 2014 Crimea sanctions recession. This compares to a 2.1% contraction in 2022 post-invasion, but current low positive growth amid structural issues signals deeper systemic pressures than wartime rebound years.
IMF-i prognoosib majanduskasvu aeglustumiseks 0,6% 2025. aastal ja 0,8% 2026. aastal.
Venemaa majandus on 2026. aasta alguses nõrgimas seisus sõja algusest peale.
Süsteemse kriisi märgid
Venemaa majandus on 2026. aasta alguses jõudnud kõige nõrgemasse seisu
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